Former #Greens leaders have urged the party to stand firm against #Labor “#arrogance” in the new parliament, particularly on #climate & #environmental issues.
#BobBrown has urged the party to “never again” #preference Labor over the #Liberals & instead run an open ticket, as he and fellow former leader #ChristineMilne said the Greens should push back strongly against “lies” about the party. #auspol
The Guardian · Former Greens leaders urge party to stand up to Labor ‘arrogance’ as jockeying begins to replace Bandt
![So, are these differences in outcomes just the result of random chance? One would think so. But the application of universally accepted statistical methodology says otherwise.
The last five recessions all started while a Republican was in the White House (Reagan. G.H.W. Bush, G.W. Bush twice, and Trump). Readers can check out the chronology for themselves. The odds of getting that outcome by chance, if the true probability of a recession starting during a Democrat’s presidency were equal to that during a Republican’s presidency, would be (1/2)(1/2)(1/2)(1/2)(1/2), i.e., one out of 32 = 3.1%. Very unlikely. The same as the odds of getting “heads” on five out of five consecutive coin-flips. Such a rejection of equality is said to be “statistically significant at the 95% level of confidence.”
What if we go back further? A remarkable 9 of the last 10 recessions have started when a Republican was president. The odds that this outcome would have occurred just by chance are even more remote: one out of 100. [That is, 10/210 = 0.0098.]](https://files.mastodon.social/media_attachments/files/114/337/207/182/112/230/original/700c65af36af4676.png "So, are these differences in outcomes just the result of random chance? One would think so. But the application of universally accepted statistical methodology says otherwise.
The last five recessions all started while a Republican was in the White House (Reagan. G.H.W. Bush, G.W. Bush twice, and Trump). Readers can check out the chronology for themselves. The odds of getting that outcome by chance, if the true probability of a recession starting during a Democrat’s presidency were equal to that during a Republican’s presidency, would be (1/2)(1/2)(1/2)(1/2)(1/2), i.e., one out of 32 = 3.1%. Very unlikely. The same as the odds of getting “heads” on five out of five consecutive coin-flips. Such a rejection of equality is said to be “statistically significant at the 95% level of confidence.”
What if we go back further? A remarkable 9 of the last 10 recessions have started when a Republican was president. The odds that this outcome would have occurred just by chance are even more remote: one out of 100. [That is, 10/210 = 0.0098.]")
