Asked to clarify if he sees genocide in Gaza, Carney says he 'didn't hear that word'
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-clarifies-genocide-remarks-1.7506027
National and Quebec polls March 23 (start of #elxn45) to April 7.
I've changed the time series to only be since the Election was called on March 23 so we can see how things have changed... or not.
National: All parties remaining near where they have been since campaign start. Will anything push these numbers?
Quebec: Pretty much the same but the one thing you can say for sure is the Liberals have come off their very high highs of 50% and are now back down to Earth, but there is still a significant lead over the Bloc and CPC.
The NDP bumps around in the doldrums under 10%. The Green and PPC vote are nearly irrelevant.
These are reported at 338canada.com
They are the raw poll numbers, not seat projections.
National polls are only those rated "A" by 338canada.
Quebec are all polls.
Polls up to April 6 as reported by 338 (these are the poll numbers as reported, not projections)
I'm including both the National and Quebec numbers because there is some interesting movement in the Bloc numbers nationally downward, but it is not reflected in the Quebec numbers themselves. It seems that half Quebec polls have the Bloc polling around 20% and the other around 30%. A rather huge difference.
However, there does seem to be a decline in Liberal support in Quebec over the past week.
#CanPoli #CdnPoli #Elxn45 #Polls #LPC #Bloc #NDP #CPC #GPC
The Conservatives have dropped below the 37% threshold in the CBC Poll Tracker for the first time in nearly two years.
#MarkCarney did that!
#ElbowsUp #Canada 
#CanadaStrong #Liberals #LPC #BuildingCanadaStrong #Never51 #CanadaIsNotForSale
I had to look a little more into the Quebec specific polls to see if there were any trends there, so I recreated the same graph with Quebec polls.
It is hard to make out from the very noisy Bloc and CPC numbers but the Bloc did go below 20%. These are Liaison provincial polls which appear to be consistently the lowest for the Bloc.
There doesn't really seem to be any discernible trend for the Bloc or CPC. Both are fluctuating wildly between pollsters. But the Liberal and the NDP numbers are showing a decline and slight upward trend respectively.
I'll post these Quebec numbers with the national numbers tomorrow and going forward just to keep an eye on it.
Is someting happening in Quebec?!
The Bloc have broken below the 5% (national poll) barrier twice in the latest two days of polling, which is for April 4th and 5th.
Mainstreet polls, 4% on the 4th, then 3% on the 5th.
There are also Liaison “B" grade (not included on graph) polling that pegged them at 4% in their four most recent pollings since April 2nd.
LPC/CPC still within usual bounds. NDP steady.
Looking at the latest polls on this the eve of the 3rd week… everyone is still in their band that they've been in since March 24.
But I do notice the Bloc has hit a new low of 4%.
A sign of a subtle shift in seat-rich Quebec?
Note, the graph below only shows the “A rated" national polls as listed at 338canada.com.
LPC: continuing in their band, but on a short downward.
CPC: continuing in their band, but on a short upward.
NDP: fairly stable around 8%
GPC/PPC: wallowing under 5%
https://338canada.com/polls.htm
#CanPoli #CdnPoli #Elxn45 #Bloc #NDP #LPC #CPC #GPC
That would be Brantford-Brant Conservative Larry Brock
If you want to remove a Maple MAGA Conservative MP there, your #lpc candidate is Joy O'Donnell
It seems likely he will be removed if this election plays out as the current conservative pollsters are pushing: they are clearly pushing the narrative of "if not #CPC, then #LPC at any cost!"
Which I find extremely telling. Do we really want to elect Angus Reid's second choice after #PP?
Reality is: most #BC and #AB ridings are more likely to elect #NDP or CPC than LPC. This may be true in #SK & #MB, and elsewhere. We need clean data from the sources, not Fournier's weighted model.
In contrast, the Liberal candidate in my riding is a residential school survivor:
Updated for polls up to April 1.
Edit: The NDP support is definitely off the lows and is starting to impact seat predictions. We can see it in Manitoba especially. Not so much Ontario, but races in BC are also starting to become competitive where they looked like a CPC sweep.
Probably a function of the local races/candidates coming into focus plus voters crystallizing opinions on Trump and applying to their ridings.
#canadastrong #TeamCarney #LPC #ElbowsUp #TeamPriti RING RING! It’s Team East phone calling Thursday 5pm- 8pm
http://event.liberal.ca/en/event/191614/ring-ring-its-team-east
#canadastrong #TeamCarney #LPC #ElbowsUp #TeamPriti RING RING! It’s Team East phone calling tonight 5pm- 8pm https://event.liberal.ca/en/event/191613/ring-ring-its-team-east
I created a line chart from the data of polls tracked by 338Canada.com. I wanted to see it myself.
Nothing revelatory here but I really wanted to watch that CPC and NDP trend. This makes it easier than looking at the table.
Looks like the CPC is stuck in the 35-40% band. The LPC has reached its peak around 45% and the NDP and Bloc found their bottoms at 6% and 4% respectively.
Will the #TrumpTariffs produce a shift?
https://338canada.com/polls.htm
#Elxn45 #CanPoli #CPC #LPC #NDP #Bloc #GPC #PPC
We are at Tim Hortons on 17th Ave SE in front of Giant Tiger on Wednesday from 1-4pm.
4750-17 Ave SE #TeamCarney #TeamPriti #TeamCalgaryEast #LPC #ElbowsUp
I hate strategic voting. If climate destroying, wealth transfer policies aren't what you want, why are you intending to endorse them at the ballot box? Also the amount of people who push strategic voting, but say not voting is an endorsement of the conservatives is insane. Only one of you is endorsing anti climate plutocratic policies and it isn't the non-voter.
In 4 Monday's we will be having #elxn45 in Canada!
If it were held today, according to 338canada.com, the networks would likely call it almost immediately if these projections bear out. Eastern Canada will send 151 Liberals. Only 172 seats are needed for a majority.
I still think the NDP projection is way too low, and I expect 2 Greens, but neither of those will change the overall outcome.
That said, 4 weeks is a long time!
#CdnPoli #CanPoli #NDP #LPC #CPC #Bloc #Green
